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Holiday Chargebacks Peaked in January:A Two-Season Study
In Chargeflow’s two measured seasons, holiday disputes were filed most per day in January, not at Black Friday. The typical dispute came 25 days after the order. See when each kind arrives and how to plan.
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Black Friday
27 Nov · in x days
Seasons
Peak seasons 2024-25 and 2025-26
Fuente
Chargeflow Network Intelligence
Método
Typical time from order to chargeback
25 days
Half the disputes on Black Friday weekend 2025 orders came within 25 days, and half took longer.
Filed within 64 days of the order
9 in 10
Nine in ten disputes on Black Friday weekend 2025 orders were filed within 64 days of the order.
January vs November
1.40–1.41×
January had 1.40 times November’s disputes filed per day in 2024-25, and 1.41 times in 2025-26.
Recorded disputes from sampled peak order days
10,600–10,800
The plotted Monday order cohorts around Black Friday 2025 each produced roughly 10,600 to 10,800 recorded disputes across the study merchants. These are sampled order-day counts, not the chance an order was disputed.
Executive overview
01
Plan for a Possible January 2027 Dispute Peak
For orders placed over Black Friday weekend 2025, the typical dispute came 25 days after the order. Half took longer, which carries a large share of holiday disputes into the new year. In both seasons we measured, January had about 1.4 times as many disputes filed per day as November, and December and February also ran above it. Plan for a similar pattern, then adjust with your own data.
02
The orders behind the disputes cluster around Black Friday
Count disputes by the day the order was placed, and they bunch up from Black Friday into early December. The plotted Monday order cohorts around Black Friday 2025 each produced roughly 10,600 to 10,800 recorded disputes across the merchants in the study. Disputes on those orders are what fill the dispute queue in late December and January.
03
Each type of claim has its own delay
Unauthorized-charge and canceled-subscription chargebacks come first, typically 10 days after the order. Disputes a card issuer labels as fraud follow at 20 days, “never arrived” at 23, and “not as described” at 31. A delivery has to fail, or a product has to disappoint, before a customer can complain about it. So the mix of claims you’re answering changes week by week.
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Peak season doesn’t just bring more chargebacks. It brings them weeks after the sales. Here is when the disputes arrive, and how to plan for them.
In this report, “dispute” and “chargeback” mean the same thing. Every figure counts disputes, not orders. Without an order count, no figure here is a chargeback rate. The method note explains why we can’t count orders.
By order date, chargebacks peak at Black Friday. By filing date, they peak in January.
Every holiday chargeback runs on two clocks: the day the order was placed, and the day the dispute was filed. By the order clock, disputes cluster from Black Friday into early December. By the filing clock, the same disputes spread across December, January and February. Counting every dispute filed, January is the busiest month. Whoever answers your disputes, whether a team or AI agents, gets the work when disputes are filed. So the filing clock is the one to plan around.
The same shift, from a cluster by order date to a spread by filing date, happens across the whole season. Switch the chart below between the two clocks to see it.
When chargebacks arrive: unauthorized-charge claims typically come 10 days after the order, “not as described” claims about a month after
The gap between the two dates is the time between buying and complaining. A customer can dispute a charge they didn’t make as soon as they see their statement. How long they can wait depends on card network rules, covered in Chargeflow’s guide to chargeback time limits. Before a “never arrived” claim, a parcel has to fail to show up. A product has to arrive and be opened before anyone can call it not as described. So the claims you answer change as the weeks pass: unauthorized charges first, then delivery and product complaints.
“Never arrived” (item not received) is the claim whose share grows most over Black Friday weekend. In 2025 it went from about one dispute in five in a normal week to one in three. On Black Friday weekend 2025 orders, the typical “never arrived” dispute came 23 days after the order, just before Christmas. For more on that shift, see the companion report, One in three Black Friday chargebacks says “never arrived”.
How to plan for the January chargeback peak
What January 2027 could look like for you
Pick your busiest order day to see when its disputes would typically arrive. Then enter your November 2025 dispute count, or your estimate for November 2026. You’ll see what the monthly pattern from the two seasons we measured suggests for December 2026 to February 2027.
Holiday chargebacks, answered
When do Black Friday chargebacks arrive?
Weeks after the order. For orders placed over Black Friday weekend 2025, the typical dispute came 25 days after the order. Three quarters came within 42 days, and nine in ten within 64.
Which month has the most holiday chargebacks?
January. In both seasons we measured, January had the most disputes filed per day of the season, about 1.4 times as many as November.
How long after the order does each type of chargeback come?
Unauthorized-charge and canceled-subscription claims typically come 10 days after the order. Fraud comes at 20 days, “never arrived” at 23 and “not as described” at 31. These are typical delays for Black Friday weekend 2025 orders.
How should merchants plan for the holiday chargeback peak?
Plan dispute work around January, not the sales. Decide who answers disputes, whether your team, your AI agents or both, and keep them in place through January and February. Make sure they can find tracking numbers and delivery confirmations.
Is the planner a forecast for my store?
No. The planner and the chart’s projected calendar apply the delays and ratios from the seasons we measured, assuming 2026 follows the same pattern. They show what that pattern suggests, not a forecast for any business.
Contracargos?
Ya no es problema tuyo.
Recupera cuatro veces más Contracargos y prevención , hasta un 90 % de las entradas, gracias a IA y a una red global de 20 000 comercios.
Your January disputes start with this season’s orders.
Get set up before Black Friday. Chargeflow reviews every peak-season dispute, builds each response around the claim being made, and keeps working through the January peak.
