One in Three Black Friday Chargebacks Says “It Never Arrived”

Over Black Friday weekend 2025, one chargeback in three said the order never arrived, an item not received claim. In a normal week, it's one in five. Fraud claims went the other way, from more than a third of chargebacks to just over a quarter. On the season's busiest weekend, “never arrived” claims outnumbered fraud claims. That doesn't mean less fraud. Over the sales, honest shoppers multiply much faster than fraudsters, so fraud's share falls even as the number of fraudulent orders grows.

That finding leads One in three Black Friday chargebacks says “never arrived”, a new report from the Chargeflow Data Lab. It's built on a study of about three million disputes from about 14,500 merchant accounts, across three peak seasons.

How common are item not received chargebacks over Black Friday?

Over Black Friday weekend, “never arrived” claims take 1.7 to 1.8 times the share of chargebacks they take in a normal week. The same shift happened in 2023, 2024 and 2025, so it's a pattern to plan for, not a one-off.

The merchants with the most at stake see the biggest jump

Merchants with the highest dollar value of disputed payments saw the biggest rise in their “never arrived” share. For those with more than $250k in disputed payments, it doubled over Black Friday weekend 2025, from 10.6% to 21.3%. Merchants with under $5k already see a much higher share in a normal week, at 36.9%, so for them proof of delivery matters all year.

They arrive weeks after the sale

For Black Friday weekend 2025 orders, the typical “never arrived” dispute came 23 days after the order, just before Christmas. By then, the order is long gone from your team's memory, and the queue is full of everything else peak season brought.

For when the rest of your holiday disputes arrive, see When Do Black Friday Chargebacks Arrive?

Disputes with strong evidence were won more often

When “never arrived” disputes went to a decision, those with strong evidence were won about 1.5 times as often as those without. That's a link, not proof that the evidence caused the win. But a “never arrived” claim asks a factual question: did the parcel get there? Proof of delivery answers it.

Read the full report in the Data Lab.

How do you win an item not received chargeback?

A winning “never arrived” response is specific. It ties the tracking number to the payment, shows the carrier's delivery scan and date, and shows the parcel went to the address on the order. Visa uses reason code 13.1 for these claims, and other card networks have their own codes.

That evidence already exists. The tracking number, the carrier scans and the delivery confirmation were created the day you shipped. What loses these disputes is the work: finding that evidence weeks later, matching it to the claim and filing it on time. In the busiest weeks of your year, you're doing that for every dispute at once.

That's the work Chargeflow Automation does for you:

• It connects to your store and your shipping data, so proof of delivery is ready before the dispute arrives.
• It builds each case backward from the win: proof of delivery for “never arrived”, and the right evidence for every other reason.
• It submits each response for you, before the deadline, so no dispute is lost just because no one got to it.
• It learns as it goes. Each dispute outcome Chargeflow observes leaves the next case decision better informed.

Chargeflow Automation is already in your account, with $200M+ in disputed revenue recovered for merchants. No upfront cost. You pay only when Chargeflow wins. Chargeflow Alerts can resolve eligible disputes before they become chargebacks at all. And Chargeflow Prevent flags buyers with a history of disputes before their orders ship.

How to get ready before Black Friday 2026

• Connect your proof of delivery to your chargeback automation. Then every “never arrived” dispute gets its tracking and delivery confirmation, without anyone digging for it.
• Review every chargeback, and match the evidence to the claim. Decide which are worth fighting, so none is lost just because no one looked.
• Check last season's disputes. Sort your 2025 peak-season chargebacks by reason. If your “never arrived” share grew over Black Friday weekend too, that's where your evidence needs to be strongest.