Tariffs aren’t just a government issue. They hit eCommerce merchants where it hurts most: shipping costs, delivery timelines, and customer satisfaction, often without warning. 

A minor customs delay or unexpected import fee can trigger a chain reaction that leads to missed delivery windows, frustrated customers, and lost revenue. In some cases, shoppers even request refunds before the package clears customs.

Not every chargeback stems from fraud. Often, it’s simpler: a delayed shipment, an unexpected fee, or a customer left in the dark. According to Chargeflow’s 2025 Psychology of Chargebacks study, most disputes arise not from deceit but from miscommunication. Tariffs, by nature, create exactly that kind of silence. The only way to break it is with foresight.

Tariffs Aren’t Just a Policy Problem. They’re a Merchant Problem.

Tariffs generally sit outside a merchant’s immediate radar until the impact becomes impossible to ignore. 

Picture a customer placing an international order. Maybe there’s a new import fee. Maybe a customs delay crops up mid-shipment. Either one can disrupt delivery promises or tack on surprise costs. 

Recent shifts between the U.S. and China and changes in EU import rules have only made things more unpredictable, especially in categories like fashion and electronics, where timing and margins are tight. The U.S. ended its de minimis exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong on May 2, 2025, applying duties to millions of low-value parcels and signaling a broader global phase-out expected later this year. Meanwhile, the EU advanced its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which in 2025 remains a reporting-only transitional phase covering specific emissions-intensive sectors rather than all imports, requiring importers to report embedded-emissions data ahead of full enforcement in 2026. Add to that the ripple effects of retaliatory tariffs and shifting trading alliances, and predictability starts to disappear.

It’s not just about international shipping. Tariffs can quietly unravel core systems like profit margins, delivery timelines, and cash flow.

According to Datos Insights and Mastercard, global eCommerce losses are expected to hit $33.79 billion in 2025 and $41.69 billion by 2028. Much of that rise stems from operational breakdowns that customers don’t understand or tolerate.

Unmet expectations, often due to logistics issues and opaque pricing, play a growing role. As our internal research suggests, poor communication around delivery timelines, costs, and delays fuels this dispute behavior. 

The policy may be the starting point, but the financial hit lands squarely on the merchant in the form of lost revenue, time, and trust.

Where AI Levels the Playing Field

We can’t control the shifting tariff landscape, but we can get ahead of it. That’s where AI actually makes a difference.

Predictive Analytics for Tariff Risk

By looking at patterns in shipping data, like carrier delays or customs clearance times, machine learning can now spot which orders might run into trouble. That lets merchants adjust expectations before the order even ships.

While some merchants rely on internal flags, Chargeflow Alerts is built to detect these early signs across carriers, regions, and product types, spotting regional slowdowns, product categories that trigger fees, or increases in disputes. It’s about spotting the problem before it reaches the customer. 

Real-Time Monitoring and Communication

When something goes wrong in transit, silence does the most damage. AI tools can flag delays and automatically update the customer, not after frustration sets in, but while there’s still time to manage it.

For lean or fast-scaling teams, that kind of support makes a difference, especially when every moment counts. 

Dispute Resolution at Machine Speed

When disputes arise, AI-driven systems automatically compile receipts, tracking data, and customer interactions, assembling a complete case in real time. That’s a meaningful shift for lean teams or fast-scaling businesses.

Automation doesn’t just save time; it keeps dispute handling consistent, accurate, and scalable, even without a dedicated team in place.

Risk Alerts and Early Interventions

Some tools go even further by catching a dispute before it starts. Chargeflow Alerts works through Visa’s Verifi Order Insight and Mastercard’s Ethoca Consumer Clarity networks, which surface potential disputes before they’re officially filed. 

This gives merchants a small but crucial window to issue a refund, clarify a charge, or update the customer before a chargeback even opens. 

It’s not about scrambling after the fact. It’s about preventing the dispute altogether. Whether a package is running late or a customer’s confused by a surprise fee, these moments create friction. Early signals give merchants a chance to clear things up fast and prevent smaller problems from turning into revenue loss. 

The Leadership Edge 

Tariffs aren’t going anywhere. And the global market isn’t getting simpler.

Cross-border eCommerce will never be simple. But unpredictability doesn’t have to catch merchants off guard. With the right systems in place, you can spot trouble early and fix it before your customer even notices. 

The strongest operators don't wait for problems to show up in financial reports. They act the moment signals indicate that something's off.

That’s real leadership, and it’s what will define the next generation of global commerce.