Black Friday Chargebacks:One in Three Says Item Not Received

Peak season doesn’t just bring more chargebacks. It brings different ones. Here is which claims grow over Black Friday, and what that means for winning those disputes.

From Black Friday to Cyber Monday 2025, more chargebacks said “never arrived” than fraud

Black Friday weekend means Black Friday through Cyber Monday (often called BFCM), the season’s busiest stretch. Over that weekend in 2025, one chargeback in three said the order never arrived, up from one in five in a normal week. Fraud claims went the other way, from more than a third of chargebacks to just over a quarter. So on the season’s busiest weekend, “never arrived” claims outnumbered fraud claims, the reverse of a normal week. That doesn’t mean less fraud. Fraud teams see this every peak season. Honest shoppers multiply much faster than fraudsters, so fraud’s share falls even as the number of fraudulent orders grows. The chart gives each reason an index. It compares the reason’s share of disputes over Black Friday weekend with its share in a normal week, for the same merchants. An index of 100 means the shares matched, and 200 means the share doubled.

The shift repeats, three seasons running

We ran the same comparison for 2023 and 2024, and got almost the same result each time. The small differences between years may come from which merchants were compared in each year.

Black Friday chargebacks: the “never arrived” share doubles for merchants with the highest disputed payments

Here we group merchants by their disputed payments: the dollar value of their payments that customers disputed over the previous 12 months. That isn’t revenue or company size. The group above $250k has the lowest “never arrived” share in a normal week, and that share doubles over Black Friday weekend. No other group’s share grows as much relative to its normal level. Merchants under $5k have a much higher share even in a normal week. More than a third of their disputes say the order never arrived. For them, proof of delivery matters all year, not just at Black Friday.

“Never arrived” chargebacks with strong evidence were won about 1.5 times as often as those without

The claim that grows most over Black Friday is one a merchant can answer with proof. When a merchant contests a chargeback, the bank asks for evidence. The strongest kind is what the industry calls compelling evidence. It shows the purchase was legitimate or answers the customer’s claim directly, such as proof of delivery or proof the customer used the product. We compared chargebacks with that evidence against chargebacks without it, for each reason separately. “Fraud” is the label a card issuer uses for a charge it treats as fraudulent. “Unauthorized” is a claim that the payment wasn’t authorized. Some payment platforms use that label for their fraud claims, so read the two together.

Picture two same-sized groups of “never arrived” disputes, one with strong evidence and one without. For every 2 disputes the group without evidence won, the group with evidence won about 3. This analysis didn’t break down which documents were sent, so the practical step is to keep every delivery record you have.

How to prepare for Black Friday chargebacks

Black Friday chargebacks, answered

What share of Black Friday chargebacks are “item not received”?

About a third. Over Black Friday weekend, one chargeback in three says the order never arrived (“item not received”). In a normal week, it’s about one in five. The same shift showed up in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Do fraud chargebacks go up over Black Friday?

Their share goes down, but that doesn't mean less fraud. In 2025, fraud claims fell from more than a third of chargebacks in a normal week to just over a quarter over Black Friday weekend. Fraud teams see this every peak season. Honest shoppers multiply much faster than fraudsters, so fraud takes a smaller share even as the number of fraudulent orders grows. This study measures shares, not that number.

Which reason codes cover “item not received” chargebacks?

Each card network has its own code. Visa uses reason code 13.1.

How do you win an “item not received” (INR) chargeback?

Answer the claim directly, for example with proof of delivery such as tracking numbers, carrier scans and delivery confirmations. In this study, “never arrived” chargebacks that went to a decision were won about 1.5 times as often with strong evidence as without. The study didn’t break down which documents were sent. It shows a link, not proof that the evidence caused the win.

Is one in three a chargeback rate?

No. One in three is the share of chargebacks that say the order never arrived, not the share of orders that were disputed. Without an order count, the report can’t give a chargeback rate.